Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ETC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-10-06 12.672839 14.487934 16.456999 18.749975 21.345003 24.188994 27.540371
2024-10-13 10.340214 12.849309 15.788977 19.480056 23.983381 29.291523 36.015517
2024-10-20 8.757720 11.482187 14.835415 19.252650 24.904327 31.878050 41.120270
2024-10-27 7.223254 9.937563 13.429014 18.229357 24.635920 32.867326 44.218966
2024-11-03 6.582010 9.432397 13.238169 18.662550 26.162650 36.130013 50.338264
2024-11-10 6.053568 9.003288 13.077315 19.076474 27.640257 39.371939 56.598787
2024-11-17 5.426237 8.356532 12.534134 18.876004 28.201950 41.342659 61.175718
2024-11-24 4.847421 7.714831 11.926731 18.506197 28.454457 42.845549 65.128505
2024-12-01 4.450788 7.303870 11.612652 18.524254 29.246808 45.138458 70.330380
2024-12-08 4.173262 7.047867 11.503334 18.829239 30.469742 48.114422 76.701463
2024-12-15 3.889051 6.751973 11.301468 18.961604 31.415025 50.701695 82.604397
2024-12-22 3.577082 6.380081 10.943923 18.807447 31.878358 52.546144 87.425303
2024-12-29 3.348798 6.135648 10.784274 18.979395 32.904270 55.379045 94.065030
2025-01-05 3.215016 6.043144 10.870259 19.566773 34.654050 59.481336 103.020144
2025-01-12 2.964458 5.718247 10.528810 19.387212 35.080067 61.410899 108.456146
2025-01-19 2.603544 5.158623 9.730548 18.341929 33.929466 60.611775 109.206981
2025-01-26 2.499270 5.069025 9.764187 18.782743 35.414615 64.380527 118.013376
2025-02-02 2.398918 4.977438 9.785217 19.197505 36.871996 68.172146 127.058870
2025-02-09 2.225477 4.726925 9.489280 18.996374 37.182138 69.941945 132.585876
2025-02-16 2.046441 4.449092 9.119127 18.624146 37.141878 71.066864 136.988742
2025-02-23 1.928416 4.285720 8.957991 18.642370 37.836759 73.561650 144.032280
2025-03-02 1.851132 4.200766 8.944882 18.949185 39.102430 77.175383 153.348611
2025-03-09 1.760772 4.079906 8.849716 19.082359 40.031130 80.196819 161.692436